With less than a week to go, it seems the Games may finally happen after all. The contingents have started trickling into Tokyo. The Covid screening is on at full swing making global headlines whenever they catch even one case (without ever giving the total numbers tested).
Now if it’s a sporting extravaganza, then its also time to make predictions. I am no octopus (given how my predictions were way off for Rio). Predicting is an inherently risky business, but this time there is added uncertainty. Many warm-up & test events were either cancelled or poorly attended. Differing travel restrictions and ever-changing quarantine guidelines have further complicated the process. And then there is the chance of athletes testing positive and being barred from the competition at the very last moment. But all this uncertainty just adds to the fun (of making predictions, not the Games itself).
"The important thing in the Olympic Games is not to win, but to take part; the important thing in Life is not triumph, but the struggle; the essential thing is not to have conquered but to have fought well." - Baron Pierre de Coubertin
For years, Indian contingents at Olympics fully endorsed this line. However, there has been a marked change with many of them becoming world champions and medallists. Here are my sport-by-sport expectations from the Indian contingent, who bear the expectations of a Billion plus people.
- Archery: A discipline which has consistently disappointed since the days of Limba Ram. Recent form in the World Cups has been good, but a couple of caveats here – many countries skipped these events. Then the Indian women’s team got Gold at both World Cup stages but lost in the first round of Qualifiers in between! Hopefully this could be a redemption of sorts for Deepika Kumari. India has a good chance for a medal in all the 4 disciplines
- Athletics: The Qualification cut-offs were tougher this time around. Most Indian athletes had to break National records just to meet the qualifying standards. And some of them broke them multiple times. However, Neeraj Chopra is the only one who could be considered a strong contender for a Top 3 finish. A special mention of the race-walking disciplines, which has seen a steady rise in direct qualifiers. A Few National Records and Personal Bests are the best hopes for most of the contingent
- Badminton: Badminton qualification were severely hit by the virus with tournaments getting cancelled everywhere and scuttling the chances of Srikanth & Saina and the doubles teams. PV Sindhu enters the Games as the defending world champion but hasn’t played for quite a while now. Same for Praneeth and the doubles duo of Satwik & Chirag. They can certainly bring in the medals but there is no idea of their or the rivals’ forms.
- Boxing:After the low of Rio, the boxing team is getting back on track with 9 quota places. Amit Panghal is the top ranked boxer in his category and then there is Mary Kom who can never be counted out. The likes of Manish Kaushik have a decent chance of getting to the sem-finals as well.
- Equestrian: Fouaad Mirza is India’s first qualifier in over 2 decades. Let’s see how he and Seigneur perform at the big stage
- Fencing: Bhavani Devi created history by becoming the first Indian to qualify in the Fencing sport. Can she do a Dipa Karmakar now?
- Hockey: It has been 4 decades since our last hockey medal. But Hockey is our National Sport. The Mens team is currently ranked 4th in the World & the Women have qualified again after the disappointment of the last place finish at Rio. We certainly can hope for the elusive medal.
- Golf: Anirban Lahiri, Udayan Mane & Aditi Ashok will be representing India at Tokyo. Aditi could spring a surprise with her recent performance in the European LPGA tour.
- Gymnastics: After Dipa Karmakar, it is the turn of Pranati Nayak to qualify for the Games. No one had heard of an Indian Gymanst till Dipa nearly vaulted to a medal. Let’s see what Pranati has in store.
- Judo: Sushila Devi is India’s sole representative at the Games
- Rowing: Arjun Lal & Arvind Singh will be participating in the Lightweight Double Sculls category. India couldn’t participate in the Final Qualifiers due to covid restrictions.
- Sailing: Nethra Kumanan is all set to India’s first ever female sailor at the Olympics. Also, these are the first Games in which India will be represented in more than one sailing event
- Shooting: India is sending its largest ever shooting contingent. Rio was a disaster for the Indian shooting team. Since then, there has been a big change in the personnel with quite a few young guns coming into the fray. As for the medal hopes, on their day all of them could bring in the medals especially the likes of Saurabh Chaudhary (who is named in Time’s athletes to watch out for) and Manu Bhaker. Or they could bring in no medals – that is how unpredictable the sport of Shooting is!
- Swimming: For the first time Indian swimmers achieved the A Qualifying mark. Thus, there are 2 entrants in the Mens, Sajan Prakash & Srihari Nataraj, while Maana Patel got the Universality Place for women. Best case scenario will be bettering the National Records
- Table Tennis: With the arrival of Manika Batra, Indian table Tennis has seen a rise in popularity. While they haven’t yet broken the East Asian grasp on the medals, they are starting to get there. There is certainly an outside chance for the Mixed Doubles pair of Sharath Kamal & Manika, who also got a Bronze at the 2018 Asiad.
- Tennis: India’s best bet would have been the Mixed Doubles but they couldn’t qualify (as yet due to the extremely complex ITF qualifying scenarios). Don’t see either Sumit Nagal or the Doubles pair of Sania & Ankita Raina progressing much further.
- Weightlifting: Mirabai Chanu should get at least the Silver Medal and bury the demons of Rio for good
- Wrestling: India lost one Quota due to Doping. None of their previous medalists qualified for these Games. Yet Wrestling could certainly bring in 2-3 medals with Bajrang Punia, Deepa Punia & Vinesh Phogat starting favourites in their respective categories.
So overall, this could be India’s best ever Games with a potential double-digit medal count and with some luck in favour could surpass the combined medal count of the last 4 decades! Or we end up with no medals at all. After all these are the strangest Olympics of all times!
And Now let the Games Begin! (Also fingers crossed that the Games proceed with minimal Covid impact)
Links:
- Road To Tokyo: Episode 20
- The Rio Hopes
- Olympic Predictions
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