Recently, the Geological Survey of India announced the presence of 5.9 MMT of Lithium resources in Jammu & Kashmir. Such quantities would make India the 7th largest in terms of Lithium resources globally. Given the pivotal role played by Lithium in the energy transition, this news was bound to make a big splash.
However, there is a caveat. These are inferred resources and will take many more studies to progress to Indicated and then finally to Measured reserves. With a two-decade background in oil & gas, I can safely state that estimating a reserves number is fraught with uncertainty at every stage. Which is why any reserves estimates are provided along with a probability factor giving the degree of confidence in the estimate. The amount and degree of confidence in the reserves changing with each additional study as well as technological advancements in both extraction and applications.
As per The United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC) classification the finds are in four stages,
- G4: Reconnaissance – mapping of resources
- G3: Prospecting – quantitative inference based on geological, geophysical & geochemical analysis
- G2: General Exploration – studies to determine the shape, size & grade of the minerals
- G1: Detailed Exploration – characteristics are determined to a higher degree of accuracy
The finds in Jammu & Kashmir are still at G3 stage, which implies a lot of exploration work is still to go understand the commerciality and development of the mines. And it took over 2 decades to move from G4 to G3 stages. So, while interesting, we are too early in the exploration lifecycle to determine the commercial value of these mines (if any). And this is without even taking factors like politics, local issues and environment concerns into account!
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Previously on Learn N Blog: Off 15th December
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