Learn N Blog #25: The IPCC Report

“Our world needs climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, all at once.” - António Guterres, on the release of the 6th IPCC Report.

Mr. Guterres has been known to use cultural references in talks on Climate Change. Remember the “Highway to Hell” reference during COP27!

“There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all….the choices and actions implemented in this decade [i.e., by 2030] will have impacts now and for thousands of years” – This is the key messages from latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And hence the call from action by Mr. Guterres.

IPCC has been publishing the reports on Climate Change since early 1990s. Following is a brief history of the reports, their findings & imapct.

1st Report (1992)

Finding: predicted a global temperature rise of about 2C by 2025, compared with the period before the industrial revolution that sparked the mass burning of fossil fuels. (In 2023, the rise is 1.4C.)

Impact: Creation of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

2nd Report (1995)

Finding: Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life. 

An Appeal: Where there is a lack of full scientific certainty, [countries] should: ‘take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects’.

3rd Report (2001)

Finding: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. 

A Warning: Impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately upon developing countries and the poor persons within all countries.

4th Report (2007)

Finding: Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts. The evidence leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting … delay would be dangerous and much more costly. 

Impact: IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. However, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 put the report on its backburner. Hope the same doesn’t hit the 2023 report!

5th Report (2014)

Finding: Human influence on the climate system is clear. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems [and] many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. 

Impact: The report laid the scientific ground for the UN’s Paris agreement in 2015, which for the first time spurred most nations to cut emissions.

Special Report (2018):

Finding: Contrasted the stark difference between 1.5 & 2.5 C temperature difference

6th Report (2023)

Key messages: In the near-term, global warming is more likely than not to reach 1.5C even under a very low emission scenario. And any given future warming level, many climate-related risks are higher than [previously] assessed. “Without a strengthening of policies, global warming of 3.2C is projected by 2100.”

The Three signposts

1. Climate crisis is fundamentally a crisis of injustice: “The 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute 34-45% of global consumption-based emissions, while the bottom 50% contribute 13-15%.” The climate emergency cannot end without addressing the inequalities of income and gender for the simple reason that “social trust” is required for “transformative change”.
2. Any new fossil fuel developments are utterly incompatible with the net zero emissions required. “Projected CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement would exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C,” the report says. It implies that the oil, gas and coal projects already in operation will lead to rise beyond 1.5C, unless carbon capture technology works at scale (yet unproven).
3. Need for technology and finance: “Feasible, effective, and low-cost options and adaptation are already available.” Solar and wind power, energy efficiency, cuts in methane emissions and halting the destruction of forests are the key ones.

The report acknowledges the daunting task at hand. “The systemic change required to achieve rapid and deep emissions reductions and transformative adaptation to climate change is unprecedented in terms of scale [and] near-term actions involve high up-front investments.” While money is key the report concludes “the costs of climate action are clearly lower than the damages climate chaos will cause.”

Given the dire warnings, as Mr. Guterres says, tackling climate change will require actions (policy, technology, monetary) everything, everywhere, all at once.

Links:

• IPCC Report: IPCC 
• Reports Timeline: The Guardian 

Previously on Learn N Blog: Ozone Depletion & Rejuvenation