“There is a very tiny margin between fame and anonymity”
Nowhere is the comparison more apt than at the great Quadrennial celebrations of human endeavor – the Olympics.
It is all about the finest margins - a fraction of an inch, reaction times deferring by 1000th of seconds, a shot taken just too late or too early, weather behaving differently on that particular moment - an extra gust of wind, overhead clouds, slippery underfoot conditions, a judgment call which could have gone either way, a referee temporarily blind-sighted, a rule open to interpretation, an unfortunate injury, the luck of the draw, the coin toss etc. So many variables which could have gone the other way!
What do the athletes have to do to get the right result? Simply, it is just a matter of getting the physics right. For all who have prepared for entrance exams, this is where all the Irodov’s problems come alive in real. Except here, the athlete has to assume almost every single variable while simultaneously hoping that they have arrived at a better solution faster than their opponent(s). And do it again and again without fail!
This was just a bit of preamble before entering the predictions mode. After all foreseeing sporting outcomes is not the easiest of asks, which is what makes it fun!
So here goes a sport-by-sport rundown of what to expect from the Indian contingent.
1. Archery: Events 5, Entries 9
A discipline in which India have been perennial underachievers. This time we have a full representation. Can they get medals? Definitely! Will they? that is another question. After all they have beaten South Korea recently. So on the day, all 5 categories can give medals. But, we have a long history of not even coming close to winning!
2. Athletics: Events 17, Entries 22
Neeraj Chopra has dominated his field like no Indian athlete ever. He goes in as the reigning Olympic, World and Asian Champion. Since Tokyo, he has mostly come first and at others second. Anything less than a Gold would be disappointing given his track record.
Avinash Sable broke the Kenyan hegemony in the 3000m Steeplechase at the Commonwealth Games. Expect a National Record and a Finals place at the least.
At Tokyo, the Men's 4*400 m relay team broke the Asian Record and yet could not qualify for the Finals. And at the last World Championships gave a mighty scare to USA and Jamaica. A finals place should be expected.
Expecting a National Record performance from Jyothi Yarraji (100m Hurdles) and Parul Chaudhary (steeplechase) as well.
The Men's racewalkers are a group which have made significant progress over the years with 7 breaching the Qualification mark. Just need that one big performance on the global stage to push the discipline into the limelight.
For the rest of the squad, some National Records and Finals appearances are par for the course.
3. Badminton: Events 4, Entries 5
Satwik-Chirag can win a medal. But men's doubles has some crazy competition within the Top 10 currently. Lakshya and Prannoy are unfortunately drawn against each other after they cross their qualifying groups!
Can Sindhu do a 3-peat? Recent form and injuries say No, but in the past decade there has been no other player who just keeps pulling off the medals at the biggest stage so consistently. Ashwini-Tanisha while not the favorites should win a game in the group stage
4. Boxing: Events 6, Entries 6
2 time defending World Champion Nikhat Zareen is a medal favourite, while Tokyo medalist Lovlina Borgohain landed up with a tough draw. On the men's side, Nishant Dev winning a medal will not be a surprise.
Special mention - Jasmine Lamboriya who went into the final qualification as a reserve. Then with a previous Quota winner getting suspended resulted in India surrendering the Quota. Jasmine drops down a weight category and earned back the place!
5. Hockey: Event 1, Entry 1
Since the Tokyo bronze, things haven't gone great for the Indian team. An early exit in the Home World Cup was followed by middling performances in the Hockey World League. While they remain sentimental favourites, recent performances don’t really give the confidence. They should cross the group stage, after which it becomes a bit of a lottery.
6. Shooting: Events 15, Entries 27
After 2 consecutive blanks at the Rio & Tokyo, the expectations from the Shooting squad are a bit tempered down. On the other hand, this is India's biggest ever Shooting contingent and the first time that India will have representation in all 15 disciplines. The squad has been revamped and quite a few Quota winners missed out in the Final Qualification series. Will this do the trick and end the medal drought?
Medal Favorites - Sift Kaur Samra (50m Rifle 3 Positions), Manu Bhaker, and the mixed teams.
Fun fact - There is sitting Bihar MLA in the squad - Shreyasi Singh.
7. Weightlifting: Event 1, Entry 1
Mirabai Chanu's silver at Tokyo had a sense of inevitability about it. However, injuries have made a repeat medal a tad more difficult. A fully fit Mirabai should get another medal.
8. Wrestling: Events 6, Entries 6
Both the Tokyo medalists failed to qualify. Between the Games the wrestlers had to spend more time battling their own federation than on the mat. And the results have showed. Just a single male wrestler in the fray. On the other hand, 5 female wrestlers have qualified! Antim and Aman are serious medal contenders.
Special mention - Vinesh, who was at the forefront of the agitation, saw Antim earn a Quota in her weight category, then opted for a lower weight category and qualified in that!
9. Table Tennis: Events 4, Entries 6
Recent results have been impressive with multiple victories over the top ranked Chinese players. But a medal still seems distant. The team is getting closer though.
10. Tennis: Events 2, Entries 2
At 44, Rohan Bopanna is the oldest Indian athlete at the Games, also a recent Grand Slam champion and World No. 1 but his partnership with Sriram Balaji in Men's Doubles is largely untested. On the other hand, Sumit Nagal is fast rising up the ranks but still far away from the top echelons of Men's singles. Neither expected to make much inroads in the draw though.
11. Golf: Events 2, Entries 4
At Tokyo, Aditi Ashok was within a shot of a medal. This is another extremely difficult to predict sport.
Special mention - Diksha Dagar, one of the rare sportspersons who appear in both the Deaflympics as well as the Olympics.
12. Rowing: Event 1, Entry 1
Anything above a semifinals finish would be a good result for Balraj Panwar, India's sole Rowing entry
13. Swimming: Events 2, Entries 2
No medal hopes, but could be a good exposure to 14-year-old Dhinidhi Desinghu - the youngest Indian sportsperson at the Games.
14. Equestrian: Event 1, Entry 1 - Anush Agarwalla & Sir Camillo have qualified for Individual Dressage – another difficult to judge sport.
15. Judo: Event 1, Entry 1 - Tulika Maan will be sole Indian judoka
16. Sailing: Events 2, Entries 2 - Nethra Kumanan and Vishnu Sarvanan are both in their 2nd Olympics.
So, as always, Team India might go on to have their best medal tally ever or they might end up having no medals at all. The favorites maybe knocked out early and a medal may come from somewhere unexpected.
Let the Games Begin! Citius Altius Fortius
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