Learn N Blog #21: Lithium Reserves Estimation

Recently, the Geological Survey of India announced the presence of 5.9 MMT of Lithium resources in Jammu & Kashmir. Such quantities would make India the 7th largest in terms of Lithium resources globally. Given the pivotal role played by Lithium in the energy transition, this news was bound to make a big splash.

However, there is a caveat. These are inferred resources and will take many more studies to progress to Indicated and then finally to Measured reserves. With a two-decade background in oil & gas, I can safely state that estimating a reserves number is fraught with uncertainty at every stage. Which is why any reserves estimates are provided along with a probability factor giving the degree of confidence in the estimate. The amount and degree of confidence in the reserves changing with each additional study as well as technological advancements in both extraction and applications.

As per The United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC) classification the finds are in four stages,

• G4: Reconnaissance – mapping of resources
• G3: Prospecting – quantitative inference based on geological, geophysical & geochemical analysis
• G2: General Exploration – studies to determine the shape, size & grade of the minerals
• G1: Detailed Exploration – characteristics are determined to a higher degree of accuracy

The finds in Jammu & Kashmir are still at G3 stage, which implies a lot of exploration work is still to go understand the commerciality and development of the mines. And it took over 2 decades to move from G4 to G3 stages. So, while interesting, we are too early in the exploration lifecycle to determine the commercial value of these mines (if any). And this is without even taking factors like politics, local issues and environment concerns into account!

Links:

• Global Lithium Reserves - Statista 
• Mining India's Lithium Reserves - QZ 

Previously on Learn N Blog: Off 15th December

The Oil & Gas Industry: What Next?

Before we look ahead, first a look back at some of the key Events which shaped the Oil & Gas Industry After all, the industry does run on History Matching Models!

1859: Drake’s well – considered the start of the modern Oil & Gas industry

1911: Winston Churchill, then First Lord of Admiralty, ordered the entire British naval fleet to be converted from being coal powered to oil powered. A seemingly unwise decision at the time, as coal was mined within the British Isles while oil was imported. The decision was vindicated in the World Wars and amongst its side results led to the creation of bp and also drew up the maps of the modern Middle East.

1933: Standard Oil of California managed to outbid the Anglo-Persian Oil Company of Britain for an entry into Saudi Arabia. An event with huge geopolitical ramifications. Later the company would become Aramco.

1959: A meeting between the Saudi Oil Minister, Abdullah Tariki and Venezuela’s Minister of Mines & Hydrocarbons, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso on the sidelines of the Arab Oil Congress in Cairo, which eventually led to the creation of OPEC.

1983: The New York Mercantile Exchange introduced the Futures Trading in crude oil. A decision which broke up the hegemony of the likes of OPEC and major companies in determining the price of crude oil. A few years down the line it also resulted in quirks like crude oil trading in the negative!

1997: Nick Steinsberger, successfully applied the fracking technology to extract oil & gas from shale – the technological development needed for the US Shale boom considerably reducing its dependence on external crude supply.

2015: COP21 and Net Zero targets - countries agree in principle to reducing their emissions to stop the average global temperatures rising beyond 1.5 C.

2020: Covid-19 pandemic brings the world to temporary halt, drastically reducing demand. Certain analysts even conclude that “peak oil demand” has been reached (how wrong were they!)

So what next? 

On one hand, Climate change concerns and net zero ambitions – there could be a sudden decision to switch the transport fuel from crude oil based to electric and/or hydrogen based and for power generation to renewables/nuclear etc. On the other. increasingly strained global supply chains may lead to increased exploration within currently oil deficient countries.

And I get a feeling that both paths will go hand-in-hand for the coming few years. Not sure when the divergence for one or the other will take place. 

Certainly, interesting times ahead for the industry!

BookMarks #110: The importance of Being Earnest

Title: The Importance of Being Earnest

Author: Oscar Wilde

Genre: Play, Fiction, Satire

Published: 1895

BookMarks

“The Importance of Being Earnest” is a satirical play by Oscar Wilde. The lead characters invent relatives to get out of social obligations, and somehow end up realizing that their facades were truths

Overall, a short, and funny read.

A few lines which stood out from the play

• The truth is never simple. Modern life would be very tedious if it were either, and modern literature a complete impossibility!
• Everybody is clever nowadays. You can’t go anywhere without meeting clever people. The thing has become an absolute public nuisance. I wish to goodness we had a few fools left. - Was this a foreboding of the LinkedIn gyaanis to come some 120 odd years later!

Previously on BookMarks: Mossad 

By Oscar Wilde - #88 The Picture of Dorian Gray 

BookMarks #109: Mossad

Title: Mossad - The Greatest Missions of the Israeli Secret Service

Authors: Michael Bar-Zohar & Nissim Mishal

Genre: Non-fiction, History, Politics

Published: 2016

BookMarks

Mossad - the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations, and its motto chosen from Proverbs 11:14: "Without stratagems would a people fall, and deliverance is in a wise counsel."

The book gives an account of the major missions carried out by Mossad over the years. There is a marked change in the nature of missions - bringing Jews home safely from across the globe, finding Nazi war criminals, kidnapping a MIG21, defending Israel against its many enemies including nipping nuclear threats in the bud, avenging terrorist acts, even finding a young boy kidnapped by his own family etc.

There are quite a few great stories, they are mostly somber but the one about how they landed up with Khruschev's speech denouncing Stalin was quite funny!

It is also an account of how each ramsad (head of Mossad) played a role in shaping the institution. There is also a glimpse of the power dynamics constantly at work between the multiple agencies including the political government!

A few notable quotes from the book

• The dirtiest actions should be carried out by the most honest men.
• spare no effort, no means, and no sacrifice, to bring our people back home.
• Sometimes the missions to bring home a nation's own are the most meaningful.

Reading about the high regard for MIG 21 globally comes as a surprise given the high frequency of crashes the past few years.

Overall, a pacy and engaging read providing a glimpse into the inner workings of one of the world’s premier intelligence agencies! 

Previously on BookMarks: Dying to Meet You