Title: How the World really Works: A Scientist’s Guide to Our Past, present and Future
Author: Vaclav Smil
Genre: Non-fiction, Science, Society, Future
Published: 2022
BookMarks
“We have never had so much information at our fingertips and yet most of us don't know how the world really works.” This is the premise of the book as it explains the seven fundamentals of how our world really works and offers a glimpse of what the future holds. Following are a few key messages from the book
The Four pillars of modern civilization - Ammonia, Steel, Concrete & Plastic
On progress - In two centuries, the human labor to produce a kilogram of American wheat was reduced from 10 minutes to less than two seconds. An average inhabitant of the Earth nowadays has at their disposal nearly 700 times more useful energy than their ancestors had at the beginning of the 19th century.
Energy conversions are the very basis of life and evolution. However, to quote Richard Feynman – “In physics today we have no knowledge of what energy is”. Energy Studies need understanding of physics, chemistry, biology, geology with history, social, economic and political factors.
Despite all the talk of decarbonization, the high relative share and the scale of our dependence on fossil carbon make any rapid substitutions impossible.
Haber-Bosch synthesis of Ammonia can be considered the most momentous technical advancement in the world. Fifty percent of humanity is dependent on ammonia as a fertilizer for food production.
Human activity with the largest impact on the Earth's ecosystem - food production. Overall, the world loses one third of the food supply. This is a significant area to manage.
Some Interesting Facts
- A gear lever knob in the 1916 Rolls Royce was the first industrial application of plastics.
- Portland cement is thus called because it resembles the limestone found in the Isle of Portland in the English Channel in colour.
- KLM was the first airline company set up in 1921
Water is the most universally mismanaged resource
On models & extrapolations
When constructing long range scenarios, we can plug in any arbitrary assumptions in order to meet preconceived outcomes. History does not unfold as a computerized academic exercise with major achievements falling on years ending with zero or five. It is full of discontinuities and unpredictable departures.
Projections involving complex systems that reflect interplays of many technical, economic and environmental factors and which can be strongly affected by a number of arbitrary decisions such as unexpectedly generous government subsidies or new laws or policy referrals remain highly uncertain. Even near-term Outlook results in a broad range of possible outcomes.
More complex models combining the interactions of economic, social, technical and environmental factors require more assumptions and open the way for greater errors.
On scientific temper
De omnibus dubitandum (doubt everything) must remain the foundation of scientific method. Unlike what the average internet user who likes to believe in everything they see on social media.
On Future
Asking for a risk-free existence is to ask for something impossible. While the quest for minimizing risks remains the leading motivation of human progress. Crises expose realities and strip away obfuscation and misdirection.
The future, as ever, is not pre-determined. Its outcome depends on our actions. The most likely prospect is a mixture of progress and setbacks.
Overall, quite an interesting read. Also, it helps that the book is written in a post-Covid world. I especially liked the fact that the author has directly named and countered the utopian future ideas (Human 2.0 and colonizing Mars etc.)
