India @79

 

Happy Birthday India!

'Tis time for the annual India post on the occasion of Independence Day, now in its 19th edition (Link for 2025 edition) Its been another weird trip around the Sun!

The nation's political landscape was shaken up by the emergence of a Gen Z movement sparked by a remark from the CJI. A movement based on a cause but fueled by reels! We have witnessed similar uprisings across the neighborhood but couldn't watching it unfold in India was surreal. All election calculations now need to take into account the mindset of an entirely new & different vote-bank! 

On the other hand, we have elected politicians merrily switching parties, making a complete mockery of the entire electoral process itself! While the common citizen is scrambling to prove their citizenship (given that none of the documents actually prove it!) and trying to search the electoral rolls from 2002 for the names of their relatives. Sifting through them is a mental roller-coaster given the sheer volume of typos and the fact that most of the constituencies themselves have undergone a drastic change due to delimitation. There couldn't be a better showcase of bureaucratic theatre than the SIR exercise!!

Moving from politics to the subject of geopolitics. A full scale war in West Asia, leads to choking of key energy transport routes sending most of the World including India to scour for alternate options. The situation may have eased out a bit but things continue to remain volatile, once again emphasizing the critical need for assured domestic energy supply.

And the energy must to be clean & green. Otherwise the already scorching heat wave is going to get hotter. The energy transition also needs to be fast especially with the emergence of AI as an energy guzzler. In the age of AI, it is becoming more and more difficult to differentiate the real from the fake. The more cynical folks now believe everything to be AI generated unless proven otherwise. Better to be safe than sorry in a more AI propelled scammy world.

On the other hand, lots of infrastructure being built but somehow not built to last. Falling bridges, potholed roads, leaking airports - this is one area which needs a permanent fix and not a bandaid solution.

Real money gaming was banned. Good riddance. Something which should have happened much earlier.  Still better late than never! This ban has also lead to a pause in the mushrooming sporting leagues. 

Given that it is still midway in the Olympics cycle, most Indian sports coverage is in a slumber. While sports administration is in shambles. Perfect example being football where an ISL champion club was sold for Rs. 100! India now holds the unwanted tag of being the global leader in doping violations. In this doom and gloom of the back pages of the newspaper the only silver linings have come from cricket - with the Women winning their first ever world title , the men retaining the T20 World Cup, and a 15-year old wunderkind blazing away all and sundry with his bat without a care in the world

So this was it as we enter into the 80th year of existence as an independent country.

Happy Independence Day! 

Jai Hind!

P.S. a map showing the princely states of pre-independence India coloured according to the number of gun salutes!

2025: The Year Gone By

As the Year 2025 moves into history, time to take a look back at some events to remember (or maybe not) the year by

1. Word of the Year

Six-Seven, as chosen by dictionary.com. What does it even mean? No one is quite sure, but kids everywhere seem to be latching on to it with the accompanying moving arms action!

2. The Year of Wars and Skirmishes threatening to break out into wars. 

It almost seemed as if the world was hell-bent on proving Thomas Friedman wrong, with missiles/drones flying all over – Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, India-Pakistan, Thailand-Cambodia, with the neutral Qatar taking hits from both sides. News channels were busy recycling pictures/videos more reminiscent of mythological series & video games than theatres of war. And somehow gave a feeling that all these were just the beginning of something bigger. The geopolitical chessboard seems to be on the cusp of something violent

3. Economic Term of the Year: Tariffs. 

All market theories went for a toss, Research reports needed constant updation, Markets fluctuated, Numbers kept changing, Policy uncertainty prevailed and the global economy gave the impression of a cat sitting on hot tin roof.

4. The Louvre Heist

Has there been a real-life event somehow more outrageous than most satirical spoof that the movie industry could serve up. Artworks stolen in broad daylight, password, security systems, with the password “LOUVRE”, the forklift company getting free advertisement, a nattily dressed gentleman on the crime scene initially thought to be a police detective but wasn’t, comments on the French working hours. If not for the fact that actual artwork went missing, this was a pretty good plot for an Austin Powers/Pink Panther movie.

5. The AI era

AI usage expanded rapidly blurring the boundaries of real and artificial. From texts to pictures to videos to TV series, there is AI content everywhere. And it is becoming more and more indistinguishable from real. Wonder how much damage an increased reliance on AI without human judgement will cause?

6. What does that company really do? 

The world learnt about Astronomer after its CXOs were caught behaving awkwardly on being seen on the concert camera at a Coldplay concert

7. The meme generator

The Indonesian boat race kid who danced at the head of the boat seemingly contributing to the team through his hand gestures (dubbed aura farming by the internet)

8. The biggest gathering: Mahakumbh. 

If the numbers thrown by travel agencies & administrators are to be believed, nearly a third of India was there at some point or the other. Even otherwise, it was the largest ever gathering of humankind.

Overall, 2025 was a year dominated by geopolitical uncertainty and AI. Lets see what 2026 throws at us (it has begun even more crazily).

To all readers a Belated Happy New Year. 

P.S. This entire post was typed out and not AI generated or modified.

India @ 78

Image generated via AI

Happy Birthday India!

Continuing the personal tradition of a small blog post on the occasion of Independence Day, now in its 18th edition. (2024 edition Link)

What a crazy journey it has been since the last edition. The past year has seen India living through the very definition of a VUCA world.

We witnessed a major terror attack, were briefly at war, a deadly plane crash with a single miraculous survivor, are currently subject to Tariffs with ever-changing rates, are seeing renewed calls for Swadeshi, have been caught in a geopolitical cross-fire with friends/foes alike in a state of flux, have overtaken Japan to become the 4th largest economy (by GDP), while stock markets have soared despite overhanging clouds, watched internal political chaos with Vice-President resigning and Election commission being questioned, and organized the Mahakumbh featuring the largest gathering of humankind at a single place… Quite an action-packed journey around the Sun.

During Operation Sindoor, the TV news jingoism reached new depths. While it is understandable that media is used for controlling the global narrative and what is happening at the ground doesn’t come out in the open. But the TV news channels instead of providing an assuring note, were pulling out narratives out of their own fantasies! Only satisfactory note - the other side was no better. We discovered during the course of those 4 days that amongst other things, not only was there a port in Patna, but it had been destroyed by Pakistani drones!

Meanwhile life in India continues to be cheap – stampedes at cricket victory parade, railway stations & festivals, manmade & natural disasters, a messed up infrastructure– all reduced to a mere statistic.

Worst of all has been the rise of the Ugly Indian Image outside – Indian tourists & diaspora doing if not illegal, simply cringe-worthy activities across the world. Although, is this case also, the spin doctors are doing their best/worst to paint this outburst of such news items as is simply a coordinated attempt by jealous foreigners to malign India’s shining image globally.

And finally in the battle of species, the Hon. SC is hearing the matter of removing dogs from the national capital streets while the financial capital is becoming a battleground for feeding pigeons!

But amidst all the doom and gloom were a few rays of shining light

• Subhanshu Shukla became the second Indian to go to space.
• Chess is home – Team Olympiad Golds, Open World Champion, Women’s World Cup Winner, More Grandmasters than squares on the Chess board - we are witnessing the start of an era of sporting domination.
• Bids have been submitted for the 2036 Olympics and the 2030 Commonwealth Games. While a great initiative, whether this will result in grassroots initiatives as well remains to be seen.

In other news, the registered post will cease to exist as will the post boxes. A practical decision to move on with times. Which is what many folks need to do in various other matters as well!

So that was a little post featuring a tiny sliver of events from the perspective of the world's largest populace! Hoping for quieter times in the coming year!

Happy Independence Day!

Jai Hind!

Goodbye 2024

As the Year 2024 AD draws to a close, it is safe to say as a collective, humankind has moved on from the challenges of the Covid pandemic. As we bid farewell to the year going by, time to reflect on and recall a few of the memories to hold on (or maybe not)

1. Word of the Year

Brain Rot was chosen as Oxford’s Word of the Year – the phenomenon of damage to mental health from an ever-increasing consumption of social media with its echo chambers, endless doomscrolling. All of us are victims of it only the impact varies. Its really time to get off the screen!

2. The Geopolitical Chessboard

It has been more than a decade since the last recognized country, South Sudan, came into existence – relatively such a prolonged period of stability in the global political map has been unprecedented. However, this balance is certainly in threat. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is in its 3rd year, Israel has multiple battle fronts open in the Middle East with both state and non-state actors. Simultaneously, regional skirmishes continue to flare up in various parts of the world. On the other hand, many governments changed either democratically or were thrown out. 

Regime changes in Syria, Bangladesh, India-Canada diplomatic stand-off, Iran firing missiles into Pakistan, Myanmar-Bangladesh border clashes, Assassination attempts in Europe & USA, South Korean President declaring martial law and getting impeached - the list seems endless. The whole global geopolitical landscape seems to be a tinderbox waiting to explode. And the people in-charge at best seem unwilling to prevent the explosion or worse adding fuel to the fire.

And the weapons in the war games have expanded - from sanctions and diplomatic cutoffs to missiles and exploding pagers!

3. The Bureaucratic Masterstroke

Donald Trump has announced the creation of DOGE – the Department of Government Efficiency – an advisory body to streamline the government’s functioning! And there are TWO people in-charge of it. The makers of Yes Minister must be kicking themselves for not coming up with this storyline. Somewhere, irony is having a hearty laugh!

4. We Are The Champions

It came home and in grand style. Multiple players in the Candidates, followed by both Open & Women’s Team winning the Chess Olympiad titles, Arjun Erigiasi breaking into elite 2800 ratings club, a 3-year old Anish Sarkar becoming a rated player. All culminating in Gukesh becoming the youngest undisputed World Chess Champion.

Not many sports have had such a success. Chess certainly has been the showstopper in a year in which India won the Men’s T20 World Cup and Neeraj Chopra further cemented his status as India’s GOAT sportsperson.

5. The Fine Margins

Battling back from hell and then being thrown back in – what a tragedy it was for Vinesh Phogat. A turbulent build-up to the Games, a draw which couldn’t have been tougher, a win for the ages, reaches the Final. The stage was set for a fairytale finish even Disney would have been proud of. And the next morning it all crumbled down in the most brutal fashion, being disqualified for being unable to cut down the weight by a meagre 100g. That was sports at its cruelest.

6. Sporting (Non-)Performance of the Year

Raygun’s Breaking display at the Paris Games. Enough to ensure that Breaking doesn’t come into Olympics discussion in the near future.

7. The Mt. Everest moment – Video Game edition

Tetris was finally conquered, just 34 years since it first came into being. The seemingly endless game was finally beaten by a 13 year old.

8. The Crowd is on Strike moment

One fine July morning, there was a global Microsoft outage. People couldn’t log into their systems, resulting in work shutting down. Some turned to the old-school pen & paper workaround but things still stayed slow. While this was a scenario straight out of any cyber-attackers’ wildest dreams, the cause was simple - a faulty update being rolled out.

9. The e-queues

The online scramble for concert tickets (Coldplay, Diljt Dosanjh)—and the torrent of hilarious complaints that followed—seems to have made people forget the alternative. At least it’s better than standing in a physical queue, exposed to all the elements, getting jostled around, worrying about pickpockets, or facing the occasional lathi charge!.

10. What is Art?

A question which remains unanswered. After all, if a banana taped to a wall can be sold for $ 6.2 Million, then it raises some existential questions for “artists”. [Aside - the banana was eaten, so now also has its place in the costliest food list, alongwith the two Papa Jones pizza which were bought for 10,000 bitcoins!]

11. And Finally from the animal world

There was Moo Deng, a baby pygmy hippo. But the pride of place must go to a pair of brawling koalas stopping traffic! (Video)

So, this was a bit of 2024. Wishing all readers a Very Happy New Year 2025!

2023: The Year Gone By

Another calendar year closes out. The world moved on from the Covid19 virus, till at the very end a new wave crept in again. As Professor Moody would say, “Constant Vigilance” – which should ideally be a default setting for everyone. 

Anyways here is the list of some events & non-events to remember (or maybe not) the year 2023 AD by.

1. Word of the Year

In a world where AI generated material is becoming more and more visible, “Authentic” being named the word of they year, is hardly surprising. Kudos to Merriam-Webster for making this choice.

Meanwhile, Oxford decided to name “rizz” as their word of the year. I have absolutely no clue what that is supposed to be!

2. Terminology of the Year

Amongst the many risks a flight traveler faced, there was added the risk of being peed upon by a co-passenger! And our enterprising newspapers headlined the culprit as “Urinator”. Talk about the lack of creativity here!

3. Mystery of the Year

On a beach in Japan, there mysteriously appeared a round metallic object. Speculations on its identity ranged from UFOs to spy satellites to Godzilla eggs. But no clear answer emerged.

Meanwhile, aliens are back in the limelight with “alien corpses” displayed in Mexican Parliament  and claims of CIA retrieving UFOs from crash sites.

4. Much Ado About Nothing

One fine day, the social media lights up with “news” of name being changed from India to Bharat. After much shouting in online echo chambers, pointless debates, lots of server space taken up, it all turned into a case of “Much Ado About Nothing”. After all, how does one change a name to a name which already is there?

5. Work-life balance debate

“Youngsters ought to work 70 hours a week to boost productivity and enhance India's competitiveness” – thus spoke Mr. N R Narayana Murthy and sparked what seems to be a never-ending debate on the (lack of) work-life balance, productivity and compensation. In the process providing ideal material for all the LinkedIn gyaanis. Many of whom seemed to be spending more than 70 hours of their week on this debate.

6. Management Lessons of the Year 

The Men’s ODI World Cup provided a full blown opportunity to generate management lessons/takeaways. Glen Maxwell’s 201* vs Afghanistan, Angelo Mathews being timed out, India faltering at the last step, Australia winning (again), Attendance at venues, Pitches, – everything had a life lesson derived from it!

7. The Armchair Experts Edition

They know everything. Any event which hits the headlines also generates a bunch of social media experts. Geopolitics, economics, commodity prices – these are passe. They also operate in niche zones – e.g., Deep-sea diving (the Titan tragedy), Generative AI (Chat GPT), Lunar geology (Chandrayaan landing), Mercenary armies (Wagner group), Short selling (Adani-Hindenburg), Tunnel rescue(Uttarakhand) .

8. When a Prophecy Actually Came True

#AbkiBaarSauPaar – that was the Broadcasters’ tagline for the Asian Games. Quite an aspirational statement, given that India’s best tally till date had been 70 medals. But at the Hangzhou Games, India reached 107 medals! Now, wondering what projections these oracles at Sony make for Paris Olympics!

9. The Dirtiest Match 

World & Olympic medalists on the streets against the Wrestling Federation. The impasse continued. There had to be a solution to it. Nobody in the powers to be even tried. It was definitely not what anyone wanted to see. And the worst bit, it is still not over. Getting suspended by United World Wrestling, Elections held and the sports ministry suspending the newly elected federation within days. Something is totally rotten here.

10. The Chess Siblings

Praggnanandhaa & Vaishali – the first brother-sister duo to become Chess Grandmasters. Both will be appearing in the respective Candidates tournament next year. What a feel-good story.

So this was a bit of 2023. Wishing all readers a Very Happy 2024!

Learn N Blog #22: The Energy Trilemma

What is it?

the need to find balance between energy security, affordability, and sustainability and its impact on everyday lives.

Who coined it? 

The World Energy Council in 2010. The Index is prepared annually.

What are the Three Elements?

• Energy Security measures a nation’s capacity to meet current and future energy demand reliably with minimal disruption to supplies from any disruption.
• Energy Equity assesses a country’s ability to provide universal access to reliable, affordable, and abundant energy for domestic and commercial use.
• Environmental Sustainability of energy systems represents the transition of a country’s energy system towards mitigating and avoiding potential environmental harm and climate change impacts.

Why the focus?

It’s a balance between short-term pain (definitely) and long-term gain (hopefully). How countries can aim for Net Zero Ambitions while keeping the current energy security in mind. The situation has been exacerbated by the combined impact of the Covid19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The consequent global supply chain disruptions, increased living costs and global recession fears have just added to the uncertainty.

Countries are looking at securing their own energy resources at the cheapest price. Hence Russian oil is still available at a discount for the willing buyers, coal production has been increased, plans to phase out nuclear power plants have been shelved, there is increased capital expenditure on hydrocarbons as well as renewables! Regulations are being modified to increase the scope of what counts as “clean energy”.

All this to resolve the energy trilemma. It’s not an easy task and there is no one-size-fits-all solution either. After all, each country has their own varied requirements and available resources. And they will have to take their own measures to attain Net Zero!

Links:

• Online tool to track energy trilemma index for each country: World Energy  
• Gas & Nuclear are Green Energy: CNBC 

Previously on Learn N Blog: Lithium Reserves Estimation

The Oil & Gas Industry: What Next?

Before we look ahead, first a look back at some of the key Events which shaped the Oil & Gas Industry After all, the industry does run on History Matching Models!

1859: Drake’s well – considered the start of the modern Oil & Gas industry

1911: Winston Churchill, then First Lord of Admiralty, ordered the entire British naval fleet to be converted from being coal powered to oil powered. A seemingly unwise decision at the time, as coal was mined within the British Isles while oil was imported. The decision was vindicated in the World Wars and amongst its side results led to the creation of bp and also drew up the maps of the modern Middle East.

1933: Standard Oil of California managed to outbid the Anglo-Persian Oil Company of Britain for an entry into Saudi Arabia. An event with huge geopolitical ramifications. Later the company would become Aramco.

1959: A meeting between the Saudi Oil Minister, Abdullah Tariki and Venezuela’s Minister of Mines & Hydrocarbons, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso on the sidelines of the Arab Oil Congress in Cairo, which eventually led to the creation of OPEC.

1983: The New York Mercantile Exchange introduced the Futures Trading in crude oil. A decision which broke up the hegemony of the likes of OPEC and major companies in determining the price of crude oil. A few years down the line it also resulted in quirks like crude oil trading in the negative!

1997: Nick Steinsberger, successfully applied the fracking technology to extract oil & gas from shale – the technological development needed for the US Shale boom considerably reducing its dependence on external crude supply.

2015: COP21 and Net Zero targets - countries agree in principle to reducing their emissions to stop the average global temperatures rising beyond 1.5 C.

2020: Covid-19 pandemic brings the world to temporary halt, drastically reducing demand. Certain analysts even conclude that “peak oil demand” has been reached (how wrong were they!)

So what next? 

On one hand, Climate change concerns and net zero ambitions – there could be a sudden decision to switch the transport fuel from crude oil based to electric and/or hydrogen based and for power generation to renewables/nuclear etc. On the other. increasingly strained global supply chains may lead to increased exploration within currently oil deficient countries.

And I get a feeling that both paths will go hand-in-hand for the coming few years. Not sure when the divergence for one or the other will take place. 

Certainly, interesting times ahead for the industry!

2022: The Year Gone By

After the horrors of 2020 & 2021, Covid-19 was finally off the main headlines in 2022. It’s still not over though with the year bookended by the Omicron wave at the beginning and apprehensions of a new wave emerging from China (where else) at the end. The war maybe be under control but battles are still raging on. While we wait and watch, hopefully much better prepared, here is a recap of some major (and not major) events to look back upon (or maybe not)

1. News Event of the Year: Russian invasion of Ukraine

On 24th Feb ’22, Russia invaded Ukraine. It’s been 10 months, but the battle rages on with territories gained, wrested back and lost again. Apart from the actual battle on the field, there was another one being fought online between two propaganda machines. After a while, no one was quite sure of what was happening on the ground. Only one thing was clear - the human cost was huge and so has been the military spend. There have been economic sanctions and sports bans imposed. Yet the war keeps going on and on. And as a collateral damage, it has spawned arm-chair geopolitical experts, with most having a minor expertise in petroleum economics as well.

2. Designation of the Year: Chief Twit

Elon Musk acquired Twitter (rather was forced to buy after having announced his intent to buy), announced himself as Chief Twit and turned Twitter into a dark comedy channel. Proclaiming free speech, then banning accounts which he did not like, changing policy, firing people and then trying to rehire them, restoring banned accounts, finding himself being voted out as CEO on a poll he conducted! More than the company – he has become a non-stop source of amusement!

3. Work Jargon of the Year

Be “Extremely Hardcore” – the ultimatum given by the “Chief Twit” to the remaining Twitter staff. The deadline passed and far less people remained (What A Surprise!).

On the other end of the spectrum was trend of “Quiet Quitting” – where workers did only what was supposed to be done and not more (Again, What a surprise!).

4. Management Course of the Year: The Football World Cup

From being the “beautiful game” football evolved into a full course in management, with every match, every play, every goal scored, every shot saved, the actions of players, coaches, the watching dignitaries being dissected and ending up as a “what life lessons you can draw from them”? post on LinkedIn.

5. The fall & fall of Big Tech

There were the antics of Musk, the single day drop of $ 230 Billion in valuation of Meta, large layoffs at Amazon & Meta, Elizabeth Theranos (once touted at the next Steve Jobs) sentenced to 11 years jail and finally Sam Bankman-Fried – from appearing on Fortune magazine as the next Warren Buffett to be arrested a few weeks later for what could potentially be the biggest financial fraud! Tech industry was in turmoil to say the least!

And then there was the bizarre case of Chitra Ramkrishna who was running NSE based on advise of a “Himalayan Yogi” who communicated with her via email! 

6. The Eyjafjallajökull of the Year

Remember the volcano with the most exotically unpronounceable name which disrupted European airline traffic in 2010. It found its successor in 2022. The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic eruption which cut off Tonga from the rest off the world and caused damages worth ~$ 90 Million in a country whose total GDP is less than $ 500 Million

7. The New Fad of the Year - Wordle

There was Wordle, a fun game. You play it and then spam the whole world with your grid of grey, yellow & green! It also spawned variants, more numerous than even the covid variants! It may be off the headlines as the year progressed but remains fun!

8. Lost & Found of the Year: Endurance

1915 - Ernest Shackleton’s ship Endurance sinks off Antarctica.

2022 - 107 Years later, it is found again, resting in the depths of the ocean

9. Book of the Year: Ret Samadhi

Geetanjali Shree’s novel became the first Hindi novel to win the International Booker Prize. Now for a twist in the tale. On Amazon, the original Ret Samadhi is available cheaper than its translation Tomb of Sand!

10. Vegetable of the Year: The Lettuce

Why not, after all it outlasted a Prime Minister. So short was Liz Truss's term, that her biography had to be updated before it could be published! But she did oversee a regime change during her brief stint.

11. Quote of the Year: “I am Mr. McAdams”

So this was a bit of 2022. Wishing all readers a Very Happy 2023!

The Perfect Jinx

Started reading (once again), Yuval Noah Harari’s Homo Deus. And on the second page came across this passage.

One line stood out “…. in the last few decades we have managed to rein in famine, plague and war”.

This book was written in 2015. The existing diseases were being managed; the new ones (SARS, Ebola etc.) were being controlled before they acquired pandemic proportions. The world’s political boundaries had been more or less stable for years except for few localized hotspots. Meanwhile, technological innovations were ensuring that global hunger was reducing despite an increasing population. In fact, obesity was becoming a bigger issue than hunger. And the efficient global supply chains ensured that men and material could be moved fast to the place of need in the event of any natural disaster.

Fast Forward to 2022. We have the “plague” - It’s been two and a half years since Covid 19 pandemic struck and upended the world as we knew it. We have “war” - the Russian invasion of Ukraine gave the western world its biggest war since 1945 with the added threat of nuclear weapons. And we are also staring at a global famine – the pandemic and the war disrupted the global supply chains, which combined with climate change has created the beginning of a global food shortage.

All of a sudden, the future is not looking so rosy for the homo sapiens!

As any sports fan can relate, this line is the perfect epitome of the “commentator’s curse” or simply “the jinx”.

Yet, jokes aside, the human beings have become more and more resilient and have better control over such matters. Fast-tracked global development of vaccines certainly helped in curbing the covid19 pandemic (although a lot of damage has already been done, but things could have been much worse). The Russia-Ukraine stand-off has not spiraled beyond the region (yet!). And steps are being taken to manage the food crisis. So overall, while not a rosy picture, history is replete with examples of things having gone much, much worse. 

So, in essence, Harari is right, we as a species, certainly have matters in our own control. How we handle it is also a decision totally in our hands and we have only ourselves to blame if do not evolve for the better!

India @ 72

Happy Birthday India!

It’s time for my annual round up of the things India (2018 edition is here) 

Between birthdays India celebrated its biggest festival – the General Elections. The BJP government returned to power with an increased majority, while all others were reduced to an also-ran status. It has been three months since the election rout, the Opposition is still looking for a leader while the government struts around with a smug look on its face. Never a good sign for a democracy.

The country’s political map is set for another change with Jammu & Kashmir being downgraded from a state to a Union Territory while Ladakh has been carved out as a separate Union Territory in its own right. The repercussions of the action are yet to be seen and hopefully the transition is a peaceful one for the local communities – the real stakeholders. We do not know whats happening on ground and sources give their own version of the story!

We came close to war with Pakistan. There were attacks, and counter-strikes and lots of hot air. As usual, lives needlessly lost while the economy took a bit of a hit but “patriotic fervor” ran high, lots of political posturing was done and soon all was back to normal. Except for the immediate families of the martyred.

Meanwhile the economy is heading to doldrums and there is no immediate solution in sight. The aviation and auto sectors have been taking one hit after another and soon could be joined by others especially the financial sectors. Economics is far more important than politics in running the world. Fingers crossed on this front.

Our infrastructure is crumbling. The cities are imploding under their own weight aided by the corrupt local regimes and a bit of nature’s fury. Wonder how long before total disaster is reached.

On the sporting front, India lost in the semi-finals of the Men’s ODI World Cup which they should have won. And this is not an Olympic year, so none of the other sports count! So we can conclude that it was a year of underachievement on the sporting front as well.

But we still have hope. After all if we can reach for the moon what are these little troubles on land!

Wishing all a very Happy Independence Day!

Thanos' Snap & the Aftermath

[Spoilers Ahead – Although it’s been weeks since the movie released, so should not matter] 

In Avengers: Infinity Wars, the central character, Thanos, seeks to bring together all six Infinity Stones, to enable fulfilling his mission to reduce the universe’s population to half, so that the other half can live happily on the remaining resources. The superhero team from across the universe joins forces in a failed attempt to stop him. Thanos succeeds and with a single snap of his fingers, makes every second living entity disappear from the face of this universe. 

What happens next will remain a point of conjecture, till the next movie comes up. In this post lets try to figure out the aftermath from a economics perspective. 

Thanos believes that resources are finite, the universe is overcrowded [a belief shared by every person who spends a considerable part of their day in commute] and the population has grown much beyond sustainable limits. For the betterment of humankind, he intends to destroy half of it. Resulting in the remaining half living happily ever after on effectively double the per capita resources. But does it really work out? 

Assumptions – Only Earth (as we know it) is considered. And the Snap works only on Homo Sapiens. All other life (plant, animal, extra-terrestrial) is spared. 

First, who survives the “snap” and who does not? As per Thanos, it will be a random occurrence. So assume it to be like a coin toss. We don’t know the outcome for each specific event but overall, it will be close to 50-50 heads or tails or in this case, survival or disappearance. 

And what happens to the survivors? Overcoming the initial shock itself will be a herculean task. Every other person just fading away, is too big a shock to easily recover from. They will have to bear with the huge emotional trauma of an unprecedented global scale. Humankind has faced disasters – both man-made (World Wars, atom bombs, terrorist attacks) and natural (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, cyclones) but these have been geographically limited and not on a global level. Here no corner would be spared. 

In the immediate aftermath of the snap, there would be further human losses. Folks in need of care (the sick, the very young and the very old) might not have people around to take care of them. Also, at any given point of time, millions of machines are running under human control (vehicles, industrial plants, utlities etc.), Sudden removal of this control in the immediate aftermath of the "snap", will lead to a multitude of accidents globally. Insurance companies are certainly going to take a major hit on their books from this global catastrophe.

Now coming to the resources bit. Assuming that the natural resources, crops, livestock are spared. Does it mean every survivor now has access to twice the per capita resources? The resource distribution is not homogeneous & neither is the consumption pattern. And more importantly the skill-sets required to manage the resources are differentiated. 

Natural resources – air, water, minerals – would be increased per capita. But managing the utilities will become a major task. 

Perishables will see a lot of wastage, as consumption would be halved (or even less, accounting for trauma and the cascading reductions). 

Supply chains will get severely impacted, with links broken in-between leading to glut of certain items and crunch of others. In an increasingly inter-connected world, breakdown in supply lines for essentials could create major havoc especially in the urban areas.

Labour will be in high demand leading to increased wages. But payment might be in kind and not cash. Barter system might make a sudden comeback. Overall production will reduce due to shortage of workforce. Automation might get a boost, but the number of consumers will also have reduced. So technological innovations might take a back-seat in the immediate aftermath. 

Prices will decline. Real estate will suffer. Owned housing will certainly become more affordable. Other consumer products will also lose selling value. Overall, economy will see a severe deflationary trend. 

The carbon footprint will decline. We might achieve the COP21 targets after all. Less humans will mean more space for the flora and fauna to thrive as well. The ecological balance will undergo a sea-change.

Some nations might have constitutional vacuums, if their leadership disappears. Significant shifts may occur in the geo-political map. Balkanization could become a worldwide phenomenon. Monte Carlo simulations might help predict boundary shift scenarios on the basis of which leadership survives ? 

Overall, the scenario becomes further bleak. Population reduced to less than half, survivors trying to rebuild from the trauma, supply chains broken, breakdown of law and order, territorial disputes, an economy in recession, shift in the ecological balance, climate change under control. In the immediate aftermath, the scenario appears grim for humankind. However, Homo Sapiens are a resilient lot. Life will survive and thrive again but it may take centuries to get things back on track i.e. exploiting our limited resources to the hilt and then some more. And what does the omnipotent, omniscient Thanos do in the interim? Does he wait for the population to grow back to a certain level and "snap" his fingers again or does he undertake regular trims? 

In all, Thanos's snap doesn't quite fufill his objective of making the world a better living place (at least for the humans). And certainly makes no economic sense.